Liverpool will have just a 14 per cent chance of winning the Premier League title if they lose this Sunday to Manchester City, according to a statistical study.
Analysis from data company Nielsen Gracenote ahead of Sunday’s title showdown between the top-two in the English top-flight shows that the Reds’ chances of claiming the title would go down drastically with a loss – they would be four points behind with seven games remaining.
Yet a victory would make Jurgen Klopp‘s side the favourites – but not by much – with their hopes rising to 68 per cent, while a draw would produce little change, with Pep Guardiola‘s team still favourites at 63% compared to Liverpool’s 37%.
But other than the 2019-20 season when the Reds overtook City, there has never been as small a gap as there is now between England’s best two teams from a statistical basis.
More in-depth research focuses on Liverpool’s attacking qualities this season.
According to Nielsen Gracenote, this season’s attack is the second most potent in their history, with only the Suarez-Sturridge-Sterling-led attack of 2013-14 superior.
Coincidentally, that was another season where Liverpool missed out on the title on the final day of the season to City; this also happened in 2019.
Yet the study shows this season that Liverpool are taking more shots than in any of the six previous seasons in which Klopp has managed the club.
Liverpool have had 557 goal attempts this season, according to Nielsen Gracenote’s data, an increase of nearly 30 per cent compared to last season.