South Africans are preparing to vote on Wednesday amid widespread discontent over power cuts, unemployment, and corruption, presenting a significant challenge to the ruling African National Congress (ANC).
Polls indicate that the ANC’s share of the vote could drop to as low as 40%, down from 57.5% in 2019.
Such a decline in support would likely force the ANC into a fragile coalition with rival parties, potentially exposing President Cyril Ramaphosa to a leadership challenge.
However, the election remains highly unpredictable, with a recent survey by Afrobarometer revealing that a third of voters are still undecided. This uncertainty makes this election the most unpredictable in South Africa’s democratic history.
For three decades, the ANC has traded on its legacy of liberating the Black majority from apartheid, which kept them in poverty and denied them basic rights. In its early years in government, the ANC made strides in reversing these inequities, bringing electricity, water, and improved housing to millions.
But corruption and incompetence have since eroded some of these gains. State power provider Eskom’s aging coal-fired power stations have failed to keep up with demand, leading to frequent blackouts. Meanwhile, critical infrastructure like roads, sewage treatment plants, and schools are deteriorating. Unemployment stands at a staggering one-third of the population.
“I don’t see what I’m voting for. We don’t have roads (or decent) houses,” said Zinhle Nyakenye, 31, who is unemployed, as she fetched water from a stream in Mandela’s home town of Qunu.
Corruption has also become rampant. While the ANC’s strong rule of law has allowed legal proceedings against powerful figures like former President Jacob Zuma and former parliamentary speaker Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula, both of whom deny wrongdoing, it has not been enough to stem the tide of corruption.
Zuma’s recent creation of a breakaway party, uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK), in his eastern Zulu heartlands poses a further challenge to the ANC’s traditional support base. His supporters rioted and looted for days following his arrest for contempt of court in July 2021, suggesting potential unrest depending on the election results.